Market Update
Just A Quick Overview Of What's Ahead
Whenever Nvidia (NVDA) is reporting earnings, everyone involved in the market holds their breath and prepares for hyper volatility — and rightfully so.
There’s always going to be a massive move in the weeks to come (whether it’s to the upside or the downside).
Today I’d like to bring your attention to the recent history of NVDA’s quarterly earnings and the impacts that it has on the stock market in general.
Before We Begin
Let’s give a shout out to the recent winners.
Strategy (MSTR)
If you saw my post from earlier today, then you know my average cost on the recent Bitcoin sector play (a MSTR put option) was $229.
This member got perhaps the worst price available for her 1 contract, and still was able to make $480 dollars — more than doubling her money on the move because the stock moved 7.5 points past the strike.
Well played.
Intel (INTC)
This trade alert was sent Friday May 8th to my Secret Society members for a put option expiring May 15th. That Friday I said:
That day, the put options fell to $100 each as Intel put in a +14% daily candle to close the week.
Monday morning I shared a note that I would be adding to the position further while the contracts were on sale (because I believed bulls were getting trapped). Here’s that Note in case you missed it.
And then the stock fell 20% from that day’s high to lows at expiration.
Our newest member of the Secret Society made this happen as a result. The put options fell to well below $100 before rising to $900+ as the expected move played out.
If you’ve been considering starting a membership or upgrading to the Secret Society, comment below or send me a direct message.
Now, Let’s Talk About NVDA’s Earnings
NVDA is a company I’ve been watching pretty closely since about February 1st, 2024 (and March 2024 was when NVDA entered the trading range that I consider relevant to today’s price action), so let’s go all the way back to Q1 2024 and see how each of their earnings announcements impacted the stock price and the broader market.
Q1 2024 — NVDA And SPY
In March 2024 NVDA traded up to a high of $97 (which was $970 at the time, but the stock split 10 to 1 during that summer).
For some context on how it reached that level, earnings were released on Wednesday February 21st, 2024 after the market closed which is typical for NVDA. And guess what? The shares gapped up overnight by 11.11% AND had a green day closing at 16.36% gains. The trend continued for 12 trading days, peaking at 44.5% gains from before the earnings were announced.
The S&P 500 rallied about 4% over the same time frame.
Q2 2024 — NVDA And SPY
Fast forward to Wednesday May 22, 2024 and NVDA reported earnings again — another major beat preceded by another slightly red day where the announcement came after hours and led to a gigantic gap upward.
There was a 7.28% overnight gap followed by a green day that peaked at 11.9% gains but closed at 9.4% up. That rally continued for 19 trading days only pulling back to the 8 EMA on the daily chart for buying opportunities along the way. By June 20th, NVDA was trading at $140/share (a 48% increase from the previous earnings announcement). The S&P 500 actually stalled, pulling back by 2% over 6 trading days before continuing to rally — which lasted for 30 trading days peaking July 16th, 2024 after gaining 9%.
You may recall this was the first trading week after shots were fired at Donald Trump in the lead-up to his re-election — when someone in the CROWD was STRUCK and CROWDSTRIKE (CRWD) was COINCIDENTALLY in the news at the same time. All scripted — but I digress … Let’s continue.
Q3 2024 — NVDA AND SPY
Fast forward to Wednesday August 28th, 2024 and NVDA had another -2% trading day going into the announcement. It seems people love to take whatever profit they have before the volatility comes in.
On this occasion it was the right decision because despite beating analysts’ estimates (as usual) the stock still declined by 19.6% over the next 6 trading days. However, that was simply a buying opportunity as the shares retested $100 from the then-current high of $140/share. Shares rose from $100 to $150 over the next 2 and a half months and it was at that point that earnings were already due again while NVDA was trading at all-time highs.
The S&P 500 pulled back 3% then rallied by 11.3% over the same time frame of NVDA’s pullback and rally.
Q4 2024 — NVDA AND SPY
Going into the earnings release, there was another slightly red day. NVDA beat estimates massively, but the stock still experienced a selloff after a slight gap upward.
This was the start of a major downtrend where resistance around $150-$155 was too strong and prices ultimately fell by 22.5% over 2 and a half months. With 3 weeks until earnings, what appeared to be a convincing rally had started. Shares rose by 27% from the recent bottom, only to fall by 40% into the lows of 4/7/2025 (where the whole market bottomed and rallied to the levels we see today).
Over that same period (November 20th, 2024 to April 7th, 2025) the S&P 500 fell by 18.5% in a what I like to call “The Presidential Ritual”. The 47th US President is in office and calls to start the buyback on 4/7. All scripted, but I digress … Let’s continue.
Q1 2025 — NVDA AND SPY
Because I covered this whole time frame in the previous section it’s just important to note that NVDA had it’s first green day while going into the earnings release and guess what happened? A bull trap, despite shattering Wall Street’s expectations the stock proceeded to fall 34% into the 4/7 lows.
Q2 2025 — NVDA AND SPY
Fast forward to May 28th, 2025, and there’s the usual red day going into the earnings release. There was a gap upward the next day, but the gains were sold off and that lasted 1 more day before the share price rallied 39% throughout the quarter.
The S&P 500 rallied 10% over the same period.
Q3 2025 — NVDA AND SPY
NVDA broke out into price discovery in June of 2025 and is still there, but mostly traded sideways since reached $185 (which just happens to be the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension).
This lasted about 250 days with the exception of two bull traps near $212.50 that occurred at the October 2025 monthly close into the November 2025 monthly open. Those levels weren’t broken in a way that appears to be convincing until last week. Suddenly, price discovery is back on; NVDA is back at all-time highs heading into this earnings announcement on Wednesday.
If you didn’t notice, it appears to be clear — when NVDA beats expectations AND dips after earnings are announced, it’s almost always a clear signal to buy because the good news will probably be priced in over the next 50-60 trading days.
Thanks for reading and supporting my research.
Again, congrats to the winners and keep up the good work!
Last thing:
If you’re on the fence about the membership, then I can’t be more clear: If you follow me, then you will win (probably in the short term, definitely in the long term).
Take care.